The Presidential Plot Thickens
Jon Huntsman is serious about running for President. He is a strong, passionate candidate who may well be the 45th President of the United States. Indeed, January 20th, 2017 could be a happy day for Mr. Huntsman, as his plans are fulfilled and he takes over for President Obama following the completion of Obama's second term.
Yes, Mr. Huntsman is a candidate in the upcoming 2012 election, but his intentions are not to win the primary or the general election. Huntsman is playing a very intricate and duplicitous game that will weaken stronger candidates, provide name recognition, and set him up perfectly to win the presidency in 2016.
The Power of the Incumbancy in 2012
Despite the wails of the right-wing that President Obama is the worst president in American history, he remains personally popular, stable in his approval ratings, and a prodigious fundraiser. His actions in 2008 illustrated his ability to reach out to young voters and minorities, providing him with a huge margin of victory over Senator McCain. While 2012 will almost undoubtedly be closer, Obama remains a clear favorite to win a second term.
However, one Republican contender presents a serious challenge to Obama in 2012, Mitt Romney. Romney appeals to large segments of society who will be attracted to his business success and his moderate views on issues such as healthcare and climate change. Romney has the ability to win vital states such as Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and Virginia. Romney has proven himself a capable fundraiser and capable of standing up to the stresses of the campaign trail.
Sabotage from Within the Party
Huntsman wants to prevent Romney from winning the nomination by splitting the moderate votes of the Republican Party. By appealing to the same type of voters as Romney, Huntsman can make a far-right radical the frontrunner and bring down Romney’s campaign. By shaving off 10-20% of Romney’s votes in early-voting states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada, Huntsman can propel someone such as Michelle Bachman to the Republican nomination to be crushed by President Obama.
Huntsman will be able to take votes from several types of Romney supporters. He can steal liberal Republicans who are weary of Romney’s recent shift rightward on social issues such as abortion. Huntsman will appeal to voters who like Romney’s positions, but do not like him from actions in the 2008 election, or feel that he is too much a part of the establishment. Finally, as a fellow Mormon, Huntsman can drastically cut Romney’s lead in Nevada, an early-voting state with a sizable Mormon population that heavily supported Romney in 2008. Huntsman’s strategy is to gather a coalition of dissatisfied Romney voters who will ensure that Romney does not receive the nomination.
By doing this, Huntsman accomplishes all of his goals for 2012. He does not want to win the primary in 2012. He does not want to face Obama in 2012. If Huntsman were to lose to Obama, he would have no chance of being the nominee in 2016 when the climate will be more favorable.
Sacrificing the Tea Party for the Future
Forcing a far-right Republican to face Obama helps Huntsman’s long-term goal of winning in 2016. First, by allowing Obama a second term, Huntsman ensures that he will not have to face an incumbent Republican when he wants to run in 2016. It is almost impossible to challenge an incumbent president of your own party, and has not been done seriously since 1980. Second, Huntsman is following the traditional pecking order of Republican primaries, that a candidate “announces” their intention to be president by entering the primary for the election prior to the election they want to win. This allows a candidate to build name-recognition, a fundraising base and campaign experience. John McCain, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan were all nominated as the presidential candidate on their second or third primary campaign. By entering in 2012, Huntsman wants to build his base of support for the future.
However, the biggest reason that Huntsman wants to beat out Romney is because Huntsman is in an un-winnable situation if Romney even wins the primary. Even if Romney wins the Republican nomination and loses to Obama, Huntsman’s chances for 2016 will suffer. Republicans would not want to vote for a moderate when a moderate lost the general election four years prior. In order to be a viable candidate in 2016, Huntsman needs a social conservative to lose in 2012, and the Republican voter base to realize that they need to present a moderate in order to win the presidency. In this situation, Huntsman would be the most well-recognized moderate. This recognition combined with his intelligence and political acumen would win the nomination in 2016.
This would be a much easier path for Huntsman. The Democrats have no candidate waiting in the wings. The political rising stars such as, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan and Alan West are all Republicans. Well-known Democratic leaders are older, tarnished and lack the skills to run for president. 2016 will likely see a Republican enter the White House, and Jon Huntsman is setting himself up to be that Republican at the expense of Mitt Romney and the 2012 election.
Join the Conversation